It's a wonder to see such optimistic projections about job development with casinos. The glossy presentations touting 20,000 permanent jobs and 30,000 construction jobs are compelling. Who wouldn't want economic development that has no downside like traffic, pollution, domestic violence, bankruptcy, corruption and burdens on local taxpayers, public school systems and infrastructure?
Mohegan representatives in their recent presentation (that cited no references in the handout) to the Palmer Citizen Committee reported projected development of "more than 1,500 construction jobs and approximately 3,000 new full-time jobs".
Wait a minute....
1,500 X 3 sites = 4,500 construction jobs....NOT 30,000.
3,000 full-time jobs X 3 sites = 9,000 jobs....NOT 20,000.
Here's the math.
Assuming conservativetax revenue at 300,000,000 which is the figure guaranteed in the bill and 800,000,000 in ten year license fees.
300,000,000 operational revenue (27% tax)
-124,000,000 lottery shortfall (which will increase with casino opening)
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176,000,000 balance
- 80,000,000 Gaming Commission/year
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96,000,000 balance
-300,000,000 The real costs for regional mitigation (4X what is allotted)
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(204,000,000) DEFICIT
AGO, State Police, bankruptcies, district courts, DA's, etc. are additional expenses not accounted in the casino bill. Education impacts for migrant/new worker families in three regions (unknown, not considered or researched in the casino /proposals).
The loss after the first year will be (~204,000,000) not including additional mandatory educational funds. The funds to cover the losses will either come from the license fees (gone in three years) or be sucked from local budgets and existing programs. How will the losses be covered in years 5 and beyond?
Will the offset of income taxes from low/moderate income wages impact the fiscal picture? Not hardly.
When will the MSM report the real costs that the average Massachusetts citizen will bear if casinos are legal in MA????
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4 comments:
You are being generous in your estimaton of the deficit.
I believe it will be far more.
Each time I see well-reasoned math about the fantasy figures that are proposed, additional costs are raised.
Of particular concern in Middleboro, in addition to education costs, the next most expensive is healthcare.
Will the state create more low-wage jobs that increase the uninsured or those on MassHealth?
Once one reviews the reality of those impressive numbers, the glitter quickly fades.
Your simple math is appreciated.
Fighting bad numbers with bad numbers. How unseemly.
You say, the casino will cost the lottery $124,000,000 per year. Now recall that the lottery is a $1.1 billion GROSSING activity. So, you're saying, and their are estimates that support you, that the casinos will deminish the GROSS by 10%. But, remember, the state only gets the NET. The State takes in $300 Million operating and loses the NET which is sizeably smaller than you've shown. Very deceptive of you!
$80,000,000 gaming commission. What a whopper you tell! Of course, you're just echoing Mr. Bosley, aren't you. Bad girl! Look at the cost of the "Special Revenue Department" in CT. It's budget is almost $9 million. You're mistating by a factor of 10.
Very deceptive of you.
You say, "The loss after the first year will be $204 million". How can I say this other than that is completely baseless--either it's a lie or number advanced in ignorance--and totally incorrect based on my simple math.
Rebut if you wish, or delete. I'll notice either way.
Dear Gary,
The 124 million is the lottery shortfall projected by the state Treasurer, Legislature, Administration and independent financial analysts. The Administration has stated that it would hold the lottery harmless and included non-existent casino revenues in House 2 budget. That has been rejected by Speaker DiMasi and strongly objected to by MMA and MTF as well as municipal leaders who need real world budgets to provide local services.
Your posts at BMG are frequently insulting and are not welcome here.
Good bye.
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